Ethiopia: Migration Along the Eastern Southern Africa Route (January–September 2025) - Report 2 | January–September 2025 Publication: 30 March 2026
Countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Africa, United Republic of Tanzania, Zimbabwe Source: International Organization for Migration Please refer to the attached file. About the Report The Eastern Southern Africa Route is a risky migration route travelled by migrants across the East, Horn and Southern Africa, many of whom travel irregularly, often relying on smugglers to facilitate movement. This report provides updates on complex migratory dynamics through Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, the United Republic of Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and South Africa based on diverse data sources and consultations with key informants. Moreover, it provides information on the main challenges for migrants along the journey, the response by IOM, and information on forced returns from South Africa to countries of origin. Key Findings Outgoing migration trends • Between January and September 2025, exits from Ethiopia fell by 33% compared to 2024 but rebounded by 61% in (July–September 2025) after monitoring resumed. Flows by Somali nationals fluctuated, with only 11 tracked, though additional nationals were identified in transit countries. • Malawi recorded 1,800 transits in August–September, dropping by 58% in September due to elections. • Zimbabwe tracked 115,300 movements toward South Africa, though flows fell by 27% between July–September 2025 after data collection suspension in September. • Mozambique registered 62,600 flows heading to South Africa in this reporting period, mainly temporary visits and repeat travel joureys, while the United Republic of Tanzania reported 2,500 stranded migrants, mostly Burundians. • Overall, South Africa remained the primary destination, with economic drivers dominant, but mobility remains short-term, seasonal, and repeat in nature. Return migration trends • Malawi recorded around 600 returns, largely Malawian nationals, driven by family reunification and temporary visits. • Zimbabwe tracked 176,300 return movements in 2025, though flows fell by 20% in this reporting period due to suspended data collection during September, with most originating from South Africa and dominated by short-term, local migration. • In Mozambique, authorities reported over 5,000 deportations of Mozambican nationals from South Africa. No significant returns were recorded to Kenya, Somalia, or Tanzania. Challenges along the route • Migrants along the Eastern Southern Africa Route faced persistent protection risks. In Mozambique, administrative detention continued due to the lack of reception facilities. • In South Africa, rising anti-migrant rhetoric ahead of the 2026 elections fuelled xenophobic tensions, with children and youth particularly vulnerable to trafficking and exploitation. • In Somalia, migrants were exposed to abandonment, harsh environmental conditions, and arrest for lacking documentation. • In Malawi, elections held in September temporarily reduced mobility, while drought and fuel shortages heightened food insecurity and constrained movements. Response to challenges along the route • IOM assisted 327 Ethiopian migrants to return from Malawi and the United Republic of Tanzania, mostly stranded irregular migrants. • IOM assisted 298 migrants with emergency aid at MRCs, up by 52% from the previous quarter (196). Most assistance was delivered in Moyale, and nearly all beneficiaries reported being detained during their journey. Men accounted for 98% of those assisted, while 22 were children, the majority (20) unaccompanied. • Support included transportation assistance (289), shelter and non-food items (291), psychosocial support (291), and food and water (291). Assistance levels spiked by 179% in August following mass releases of detained migrants. • In Zimbabwe, unaccompanied Mozambican children were rescued from exploitative conditions and returned to Mozambique with support from IOM and UNICEF. • In Malawi, safehouses and prisons continued to provide shelter for victims of trafficking and smuggled migrants. Deaths and disappearances during migration • Between January and September 2025, 16 migrant deaths were reported in the western Indian Ocean compared to 22 reported during the same period in 2024. Two incidents in Mayotte accounted for five fatalities, including two children, following boat collisions and capsizing.* • Most deaths along this route are linked to unsafe sea travel on unseaworthy vessels, with drowning as the primary cause. Data remain fragmented and incomplete due to limited reporting capacities and the irregular nature of movements. Foresight (3 to 6 months) • Flows from Ethiopia may rise if security stabilizes and monitoring continues. • Somali flows will likely remain underreported but may increase with expanded data collection. • Economic migration through Kenya is expected to grow, influenced by regional elections and labour demand. • The United Republic of Tanzania will remain a key transit hub with persistent irregular migration. • In Malawi, flows to South Africa may rebound after elections but could be constrained by fuel shortages and drought. • Zimbabwe is likely to continue as a major transit country, with seasonal and short-term migration prevailing. • Mozambique will remain a transit hub, though high deportations are expected to continue.
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